Cambodia forecasts a late-October transition to the dry season

The October notice reiterates an earlier outlook

The third-week-of-October timeframe first appeared in the ministry's September forecast. Its October 10 update maintains that expectation and points to weakening southwest monsoon winds, strengthening northeast monsoon conditions and a gradual decline in rain.

The ministry based its assessment in part on sea-surface temperature patterns across the western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and equatorial regions. These are indicators for the broader seasonal outlook; conditions in individual provinces may still vary considerably.

For practical context, see Cambodia market and country comparisons. This development also connects with Cambodia Warns of Indirect Champi Effects Through October 23.

Rainfall may ease while thunderstorms continue

Less frequent rain does not eliminate the risk of severe local weather. The ministry warned that thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds could still affect parts of Cambodia after the seasonal change. Anyone arranging long road journeys or outdoor work should continue to pay attention to local forecasts and warnings.

The announcement also anticipates relatively little rainfall from the northeast monsoon. The timing of the transition should therefore be understood alongside the outlook for the months that follow.

Water conservation is the immediate message

The ministry expects El Niño conditions to persist through February 2027 and has asked the public to use water carefully and help protect available supplies. This is a preparedness warning, not a finding that every city or household will face a shortage.

For people renting or maintaining a house, the relevant details are specific to the property. A private well, pump or storage tank may need attention before rainfall declines, while homes connected to a public supply depend on local arrangements. Asking how the building obtains and stores water is more informative than assuming a national forecast predicts interruptions at a particular address.