Cambodia GDP and growth

Indicators and their vintage

Each figure keeps two dates: the period it measures and the date it was published. A 2025 result released in mid-2026 was not available at the end of 2025, and a forecast is never shown as an observed outcome.

What GDP measures

Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced within the country over a period. It is not the sum of wages, bank money or asset values. For property analysis, GDP is a broad activity framework, but it does not directly show the number of buyers, average rent or price per square metre.

Real GDP removes the effect of general price changes and asks whether the volume of output increased. Nominal GDP values output at current prices and is useful for ratios such as debt to GDP or the dollar size of the economy. The US$51.3 billion nominal estimate and 5.3% real growth rate for 2025 are not alternative measures of the same thing ^[1].

GDP per capita is an arithmetic division of output by population. The World Bank’s US$2,874.6 estimate for 2025 is not an average wage or median income ^[1]. Rent affordability requires evidence on the income of the relevant tenant group, household composition and expenses.

2024: the official outcome and comparison base

The National Institute of Statistics reported real growth of 6.0% in 2024 after 5.0% in 2023 ^[5]. This is an important base: saying that growth slowed in 2025 describes a lower rate, not an economic contraction. A positive but smaller rate means output continued to expand more slowly.

The comparison base matters for property. If a company says rents rose 5%, the reader needs to know whether the same units were measured, whether occupancy changed and whether expenses rose faster. National GDP growth does not turn scattered market observations into a comparable series.

The official 2024 result should not be extended into later years as a forecast. External demand, trade conditions, domestic credit and geopolitical events change. Every forecast vintage needs its own release date and assumptions.

2025: why two estimates coexist

At the check date, the accessible source set did not provide one uncontested final national point for 2025. The World Bank estimated 5.3% growth in June 2026, while the National Bank of Cambodia used 5.0% in March ^[1][2]. The 0.3 percentage-point difference can reflect data cut-offs, models and later information.

The correct editorial treatment is to show both figures rather than choose one. Averaging them to 5.15% would create a number published by neither institution. When final national accounts become available, the live card will be updated, while period reports will preserve the estimates available at the time.

The disagreement matters less for its decimal size than as evidence of uncertainty. A buyer should not build a precise rent model from one national growth estimate, particularly when district-level evidence is much weaker.

Which sectors drove growth

The World Bank estimated 2025 growth of 9.1% in industry, 3.2% in services and 1.2% in agriculture ^[1]. These rates cannot be added because the sectors have different weights. Their contribution to total growth depends on size as well as speed.

Industrial activity was not limited to traditional garments. Diversifying non-resource production and exports can create jobs around industrial zones and logistics corridors. For housing, worker skills, contract stability and commuting distance matter more than the abstract industry growth rate.

Services combine very different activities: trade, transport, finance, professional services, education, hospitality and government. Growth of 3.2% does not imply the same direction for office demand, long-term rentals and tourism. Each segment requires its own evidence.

Agriculture grew more slowly but employed around three million people, roughly one third of the workforce, while generating about one sixth of output ^[1]. The difference underlines the gap between employment and purchasing power for urban housing.

Jobs: quantity is not demand for every segment

The World Bank reported about 401,000 formal jobs created in 2025: approximately 210,000 in garments and 191,000 in other formal sectors ^[1]. This is more directly relevant to housing than one GDP headline, but it remains insufficient for a project-level demand estimate.

Location, pay, contract duration, household structure and living arrangements are required. A new factory worker, an international-company manager and a diplomatic employee generate different demand by price, unit size, transport needs and lease length.

Formal job creation does not equal net migration to Phnom Penh. Some workers may have moved from informal jobs, some positions are outside the capital and some sectors have high turnover. The number is therefore context, not a count of potential tenants.

External and domestic demand

Cambodia remains an open economy, so exports, tourism and foreign investment materially affect growth. External demand can support production and services quickly, while also exposing the country to changes in trading partners, logistics and the global cycle.

Domestic demand depends on income, credit, public spending and business and household confidence. By February 2026, private-sector credit was growing 5.6% year on year and M2 9.8% ^[1]. The different rates describe monetary and credit conditions but do not reveal how much lending financed homes.

For apartments, the task is not to choose between external and domestic demand but to identify which supports the segment. Some new condominiums target foreign buyers, while long-term occupancy depends on people working in Cambodia. The two audiences respond to different risks.

What 2026 forecasts say—and do not say

Published forecasts differ. The IMF expected 4.0% growth in December 2025, the Asian Development Bank 4.5% in April 2026, and the World Bank 3.9% in June 2026 ^[6][7][1]. These are not three outcomes; they are three expectation vintages based on different information sets.

A newer forecast usually incorporates more events but is not guaranteed to be more accurate. It must be read with its scenario: exports, domestic demand, external conditions, financial settings and other assumptions. A single number without the narrative creates false confidence.

The forecasts are used here as a range of dated expectations, not as a basis for saying the economy “will grow by X.” When 2026 ends, the forecast does not become an observation; it is replaced by a released estimate with a new status and date.

Connecting growth to property without false causality

First identify the asset’s economic audience. An apartment near an international school depends on family demand, school contracts and transport. Housing near an industrial zone depends on employment, shifts, pay and household form. A central prime project depends on corporate budgets, diplomatic activity and professional demand. Headline GDP remains background.

Second, test supply. Even with a growing target audience, too many similar units can constrain rent and raise vacancy. Completions lag the economic cycle: today’s buildings reflect developer decisions made years earlier.

Third, test price and expenses. Economic growth does not correct an inflated purchase price, high service charge, weak management or legal risk. An asset can have a supportive macro context and poor deal economics at the same time.

Finally, a fixed coefficient cannot translate a GDP forecast into a future apartment price. The relationship is unstable, and Cambodia lacks a sufficiently complete open transaction series for a reliable model. Any formula would depend on assumptions stronger than the available evidence.

What we do not know

Current estimates of 2025 real growth differ. The final number will remain unknown until national accounts are released and subsequently revised.

There is no regular open series connecting job creation by occupation and wage with rental demand by Phnom Penh district. The bridge from an economic sector to a particular apartment is therefore analytical rather than statistically established.

Cambodia lacks a sufficiently complete public series of transaction prices and net rental income to estimate apartment sensitivity to GDP reliably. Listings are not transactions.

The 2026 forecasts are institutional scenarios. The actual outcome, scale and timing of revisions, and the distribution of national growth across cities and segments are unknown.

Frequently asked questions

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