NovAsia

Thailand exports and manufacturing: strong shipments, uneven factory output

Thailand entered mid-2026 with two very different manufacturing stories running at the same time. The latest fully published monthly trade and industrial data available at the 24 August check date are for June 2026: merchandise exports jumped 20.75% from a year earlier, yet imports rose 50.28%, leaving a US$6.53 billion customs trade deficit. The trade figures were released in July 2026.

Period: 2026-Q2 · checked 24.08.2026

Factory output did not match that export headline. The Office of Industrial Economics reported on 27 July 2026 that the Manufacturing Production Index was down 3.10% year on year in June, capacity utilisation stood at 57.61%, and automotive production fell 12.59%. At the same time, its measure of industrial-product exports rose 30.2%. The gap matters because a technology-led export upswing can coexist with weak output in older or more domestically exposed industries, especially when exporters rely heavily on imported inputs.

For a property buyer, this is a more useful signal than treating exports as a national property indicator. Industrial demand reaches housing through jobs, contractor activity, specialist relocations and household income in particular locations. A province can benefit from a new electronics or electric-vehicle supply chain while another factory cluster is cutting shifts, so the relevant question is who actually rents and works near the property being assessed.

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Indicators and their vintage

Each figure keeps two dates: the period it measures and the date it was published.

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Indicators and their vintage

Each figure keeps two dates: the period it measures and the date it was published. A 2025 result released in mid-2026 was not available at the end of 2025, and a forecast is never shown as an observed outcome.

IndicatorValuePeriodReleasedNote
Goods exports, US$ million[1]34,655.92 | +20.75%06.202607.2026June 2026 merchandise exports were 20.75% higher than in June 2025. The headline is strong, but the gains were not spread evenly across industries.
Trade balance, US$ million[1]-6,534.7106.202607.2026Imports reached US$41,190.63 million in June, up 50.28% year on year, so strong export growth still produced a customs trade deficit.
Industrial-product exports[2]+30.2%06.202607.2026Year-on-year growth in the Office of Industrial Economics measure that excludes gold and specified strategic goods. Computers and parts, phones and parts, electrical equipment, machinery, pickup trucks and chemicals were among the important contributors.
Exports to the United States, THB million[4]294,841.7706.202607.2026The United States was the largest single-country destination in the Bank of Thailand's June table. China accounted for THB125,960.86 million and Japan THB77,232.54 million, while ASEAN as a regional group received THB240,753.64 million.
Manufacturing Production Index[2]94.99 | -3.10%06.202607.2026The index fell 3.10% year on year. For Q2 2026, the index averaged 95.96, down 1.79% from a year earlier.
Capacity utilisation[2]57.61%06.202607.2026Average capacity utilisation was 57.47% in Q2. It helps distinguish strength in selected export categories from a broad-based manufacturing expansion.
Automotive production[2]-12.59%06.202607.2026Automotive output fell 12.59% year on year and 8.70% from May. For the eastern industrial belt, this is an important counterweight to the investment story around new vehicle technologies.
Current-account balance, US$ million[5]-3,473.8506.202607.2026This Bank of Thailand figure is compiled on a balance-of-payments basis and is not the same as the Ministry of Commerce customs trade balance. It is one reason export growth cannot be translated mechanically into a stronger baht.
BOI-promoted EV supply-chain projects[11]198 projects; >THB137bn; >16,000 Thai jobsas of 05.202607.2026BOI figures cover vehicle manufacturing, batteries, critical components and charging infrastructure; the employment figure refers to manufacturers that had already started production.
Additional US Section 301 duty on Thailand[15]12.5%effective from 24.07.2026 for covered entries07.2026The rate follows the forced-labour import-ban investigation and is subject to product exclusions. It is not a continuation of the former 19% 2025 reciprocal-tariff regime.

Frequently asked questions

What does Thailand export?

Thailand's export base spans computers and electronics, electrical equipment, machinery and parts, vehicles and components, chemicals, rubber, food and processed agricultural products. In the June 2026 industrial release published on 27 July, computers and parts, phones and parts, electrical equipment, machinery, pickup trucks and chemicals were among the important export contributors. For property, the mix matters because these industries employ different workers and are concentrated in different locations.

How do trade wars and tariffs affect the property market?

Usually through employment and income rather than through property prices directly. A tariff first changes the economics of a particular product, then potentially affects factory orders, shifts, hiring and wages, and only later reaches nearby housing demand. On 23 July 2026, the United States finalised a Section 301 action that includes Thailand in the 12.5% category for covered goods, with product exemptions. A buyer should therefore identify which employers support the local tenant pool and how exposed they are to one export market instead of applying one tariff number to the entire property market.

Does stronger export growth mean a stronger baht?

Not automatically. Export receipts can support demand for the baht, but Thailand is also paying for imports and cross-border income while investors are moving capital in and out of the country. Exports were up 20.75% year on year in June 2026 in trade data released in July, yet imports rose much faster and the current account in Bank of Thailand data updated on 31 July was still in deficit. The exchange rate therefore reflects the whole external and financial balance, not exports in isolation.

Does the EV transition automatically make Chonburi and Rayong better property markets?

No. New vehicle, battery and component plants can create jobs and rental demand while legacy suppliers are simultaneously losing orders or changing their workforce. A July Board of Investment release reported 198 promoted electric-mobility projects worth more than THB137 billion as of May 2026, while vehicle production in the June data released on 27 July was 12.59% lower than a year earlier. For an individual property, distance to expanding employers, tenant profile and competing housing supply matter more than the province's industrial brand.

Sources

The sources cited on this page, numbered in order. Each one is named with its issuing body and release date, because a figure without a vintage cannot be checked for staleness. We do not publish outbound links — the document name and the institution are enough to find and verify it yourself.

  • [1] Thailand International Trade, June 2026 — Ministry of Commerce of Thailand — 24.08.2026
  • [2] Manufacturing Production Index for June and Q2 2026 — Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry — 24.08.2026
  • [4] Trade Classified by Country/Economic Territory — Bank of Thailand — 24.08.2026
  • [5] Balance of Payments: Summary in US Dollars — Bank of Thailand — 24.08.2026
  • [11] Thailand Secures $4.1 Billion in EV Chain Investments as Southeast Asia Auto Hub Pivots to Next-Gen Tech — Thailand Board of Investment — 24.08.2026
  • [15] Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations Related to Forced Labor Import Prohibitions — Office of the United States Trade Representative / Federal Register — 24.08.2026

Apply this to a specific property

Tell us the project and the goal — we will say which of these numbers actually bears on that decision and what still has to be confirmed in the building’s own documents.

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Informational material based on public, dated sources. It is not a public offer and not individual investment, tax or legal advice, and no forecast here is a promise of price or yield. Figures carry the period and the release date of their source and may be revised by the issuing body. A decision on a specific property requires document, price and ownership-cost checks with an independent Thai lawyer.