Project Sales Velocity in Cambodia: Absorption Rate and Unsold Inventory

Prepared by the NovAsia Editorial Team

The statement “80% sold” creates an immediate sense of scarcity.

The buyer may assume that the market has validated the price, the best units are disappearing and the remaining stock will soon become more expensive.

Eighty per cent can describe very different realities.

In one project, it may mean executed SPAs supported by substantial buyer payments.

In another, it may include reservations secured by a small refundable booking fee.

A third project may have allocated a large block to a master agent or related company.

A fourth may calculate the percentage only from the first sales release while half the building remains outside the denominator.

Sales velocity becomes useful only when the numerator, denominator and time period are clear.

Without those three elements, the percentage is a marketing device rather than evidence of demand.

This article provides general analytical information, not financial, legal or valuation advice. Project sales data, payment status and inventory should be checked for the relevant development and date.

What absorption rate measures

In broad market analysis, absorption describes how quickly available supply is taken up over a period.

For an individual project, it is often more useful to separate:

• sales velocity;
• net sales;
• remaining inventory;
• months of supply;
• cancellation rate.

Sales velocity asks how many units are contracted each month or quarter.

Remaining inventory asks how many units still need to be sold.

If a project signs 30 new SPAs during a quarter but 12 earlier buyers cancel, net absorption is 18 units rather than 30.

If 300 of 400 units have been sold, the project appears 75% sold.

The remaining 100 may nevertheless consist mainly of:

• awkward layouts;
• weak views;
• high-priced large units;
• returned inventory;
• categories with low demand.

The final 25% can be materially harder to sell than the first 75%.

Absorption rate is therefore not one magic number. It is a group of measures that must be read together with price, construction stage, cancellations and the composition of the stock.

“Sold” begins with a definition

Sales teams may use one word for several stages.

For marketing purposes, the first four stages may be grouped as sold or reserved.

For financing and demand analysis, they are not equivalent.

A booking supported by a small refundable payment can disappear easily.

An executed SPA with 30–50% of the purchase price already collected provides much stronger evidence that the buyer is committed and that the project has received usable funds.

Even an executed SPA can terminate where the buyer stops paying and the developer returns the unit to inventory.

The first question should therefore be:

“What exactly does the project count as sold?”

The denominator can transform the percentage

Assume a project contains 500 apartments.

The developer releases 200 units and reports 160 sold.

The result is:

• 80% of released inventory;
• 32% of the full project.

Both figures are mathematically correct.

They answer different questions.

Phased release is a normal sales strategy.

A developer may withhold units to:

• manage pricing;
• preserve future choice;
• avoid flooding the market;
• redesign later phases;
• reserve certain floors or views.

The problem arises when a percentage based on the first release is interpreted as the percentage sold across the full development.

The denominator may exclude:

• future phases;
• units retained by the landowner;
• shareholder inventory;
• contractor units;
• apartments allocated to a master agent;
• penthouses not yet configured;
• commercial units;
• hotel inventory;
• serviced-apartment stock.

An investor needs to know not only what is available today, but what can enter the sales and rental market later.

Gross sales and net sales

Gross sales count every new contract during the period.

Net sales deduct:

• cancellations;
• terminations;
• units returned to stock;
• rescinded bulk allocations.

A simple example:

Reporting only 40 makes the market appear faster than it is.

Cancellation risk is especially important in projects with:

• long instalment plans;
• low initial payments;
• speculative buyers;
• assignment expectations;
• delayed completion.

The same apartment can appear in gross sales more than once if it is sold, cancelled and sold again.

A low cancellation rate provides evidence not only of demand, but of buyer quality and payment capacity.

A high cancellation rate shows that earlier sales numbers were less durable than they appeared.

Contracts do not equal cash collected

One hundred sold apartments can produce very different cash flows.

In Project A, buyers may already have paid 50%.

In Project B, buyers may have paid 5% under a long post-handover schedule.

Both projects can claim one hundred sales.

The financial contribution to construction is not remotely the same.

Useful questions include:

• How much of the contracted price has been collected?
• How much is overdue?
• How much is deferred until handover?
• Are there large balloon payments?
• How many buyers rely on resale before final payment?
• What percentage is held only through refundable deposits?

These figures are rarely disclosed in full to a retail buyer.

The standard payment plan still reveals part of the risk.

A project with 80% contracted but only 5–10% collected may have weaker financial support than a project with a lower sold percentage and larger cash receipts.

Absorption must be measured over time

A project that sells 60% in six months is different from one that reaches 60% over five years.

A cumulative percentage hides velocity.

The buyer should ask for context:

• launch date;
• monthly or quarterly sales;
• performance before and after construction began;
• response to price changes;
• response to promotions;
• sales after handover;
• seasonal patterns;
• effect of bulk deals.

Stable net sales of ten units a month may be more meaningful than one month with one hundred reservations through a single distributor followed by silence.

Project size also matters.

Five net sales a month can be strong for a 120-unit project and weak for a 1,000-unit tower.

There is no universal “good absorption rate”.

A useful rate is one that:

• remains stable;
• uses sustainable pricing;
• fits the financing plan;
• reduces inventory without constant concessions.

Months of inventory shows the length of the remaining task

A simple months-of-inventory calculation asks:

“How long would the current unsold stock take to sell at the recent net rate?”

Assume:

• remaining inventory: 180 units;
• average net sales: 10 units per month.

Theoretical inventory:

180 ÷ 10 = 18 months

The calculation is useful but imperfect.

It can be distorted by:

• one unusually strong promotion month;
• a large bulk sale;
• difficult unit types in the remaining stock;
• future phases not yet released;
• price increases;
• changing market demand.

The rate should ideally use a rolling average across several months and be calculated separately by unit category.

Six months of supply and five years of supply create very different resale competition for future owners.

The last 20% can be the hardest 20%

Early buyers often receive:

• launch discount;
• longest instalment plan;
• widest unit choice;
• best views;
• lower total prices.

The remaining stock may contain:

• large units;
• poor views;
• awkward layouts;
• units beside lifts or technical rooms;
• high floors carrying an excessive premium;
• returned units;
• repetitive investor products;
• apartments above commercial areas.

The move from 0% to 60% sold can be much faster than the move from 80% to 100%.

“Only 20% remains” can mean genuine scarcity.

It can also mean that the market has already selected the strongest units and rejected the remainder at the current price.

The buyer should examine the remaining inventory by type, not only the project percentage.

Related parties and bulk sales

A master agent can reserve or purchase a block of units.

This can help the developer by:

• reducing marketing cost;
• accelerating pre-sales;
• entering a foreign market;
• receiving deposits more quickly.

The economic meaning depends on the arrangement.

Questions include:

• Did the master agent acquire the units?
• How much was paid?
• Can unsold units be returned?
• Is the agent merely holding exclusive sales rights?
• Who pays later instalments?
• Are end buyers already identified?
• Are these units included as sold?

A landowner may receive units instead of cash.

A contractor may be paid in apartments.

A shareholder may acquire stock.

These transactions can be economically real.

They do not necessarily prove third-party demand at the public asking price.

After handover, a bulk buyer or master agent may continue selling units alongside the developer and private owners, increasing internal competition.

Effective price matters more than unit count

Sales can almost always be accelerated by reducing the effective price.

A developer may preserve the public price while adding:

• cash discount;
• furniture;
• cashback;
• free management;
• guaranteed rent;
• long instalments;
• low booking fee;
• fee exemptions.

The nominal price remains unchanged.

The economic package becomes cheaper.

A sales increase after a major promotion demonstrates demand at the new effective value, not necessarily at the old price.

For a future private owner, the relevant fact is the cost basis of neighbouring investors.

An owner who purchased with a large discount can resell or reduce rent more aggressively than someone who paid the full launch price.

A rising price list can conceal slowing sales

Developer marketing often presents two upward lines:

• sold percentage;
• official price.

The combination creates an impression of success.

Cumulative sold percentage normally rises if cancellations are not deducted.

The official price is a seller decision rather than independent market evidence.

The developer can:

• raise the list price;
• reduce actual monthly sales;
• add bonuses;
• release higher floors;
• change the furniture package;
• increase instalment length.

Stronger evidence includes:

• consistent net sales;
• low cancellation rate;
• shrinking total inventory;
• limited concessions;
• construction progress;
• transactions across several channels;
• repeat demand for the same unit type.

A staircase in the price list does not prove resale appreciation.

Sales velocity is connected to construction finance

Pre-sales are not only a marketing metric.

They can be a source of construction funding.

Where the financial plan assumes 20 units sold each month and actual net sales fall to five, the project needs another source:

• sponsor equity;
• bank facility;
• shareholder loan;
• slower spending;
• revised phasing.

The same absorption rate may therefore be acceptable for one developer and dangerous for another.

A well-capitalised project can continue building through a slow market.

A pre-sale-dependent project may respond through:

• larger discounts;
• accelerated payment requests;
• reduced construction pace;
• contractor deferral.

The buyer does not need the full internal budget to understand the link.

The relevant question is whether the observed sales rate is consistent with the stated completion plan.

Unsold stock remains a competitor after handover

After completion, the developer may continue selling remaining units.

It has advantages that private owners do not:

• sales office;
• marketing budget;
• instalments;
• unit choice;
• furniture packages;
• warranties;
• promotional discounts;
• access to new international channels.

A private seller competes through:

• lower price;
• immediate availability;
• proven rent;
• better view;
• existing tenant;
• upgraded furniture;
• completed title.

Where developer inventory remains large, the secondary market may take years to develop.

Buyers tend to visit the sales office first.

This means project absorption before purchase can directly affect resale liquidity after purchase.

Sales by unit type matter more than the average

A project may be 70% sold overall while the selected product category is only 35% sold.

Examples include:

• one-bedrooms sold strongly while two-bedrooms remain;
• family units sold to local buyers while studios accumulate;
• lower floors sold while premium high floors remain;
• corner units sold while internal units struggle.

The relevant absorption rate is the rate for direct substitutes.

The project average can hide weakness in the exact unit being purchased.

Sales-office data and independent verification

Cambodia does not always provide a public project-level sales registry accessible to retail buyers.

The picture must often be assembled from several sources.

The sales office knows internal data but has a commercial interest.

Agents see availability and buyer reactions but work through different channels.

Construction progress shows use of funds but not the full obligation structure.

Property portals contain duplicate and outdated listings.

Building management after handover can see occupied units but may not know original sale prices.

Confidence increases where the sources align.

If a sales office claims near sell-out while agents offer dozens of identical units and promotions become more aggressive, the percentage needs explanation.

High-value questions

A buyer does not need a fifty-question audit.

A small set of questions reveals most of the structure:

• How many private units exist across all phases?
• How many have been released?
• How many SPAs are signed?
• How many contracts have been cancelled?
• What percentage of contracted value has been received?
• How much inventory is held by related parties or master agents?
• What were net sales over the last 6–12 months?
• Which unit types make up the remaining stock?
• What incentives were included in recent deals?
• How much developer inventory will remain at handover?

An incomplete answer can still be informative.

The developer’s willingness to explain the methodology matters as much as the headline number.

Worked comparison

Project A:

• total units: 500;
• reported sold: 80%;
• all units released;
• 400 SPAs signed;
• 20 cancellations;
• many buyers have paid 30%;
• recent net sales: 12 per month.

Project B:

• total units: 300;
• reported sold: 75%;
• only 160 units released;
• 120 booked;
• 85 SPAs signed;
• some bookings refundable;
• later phase not released.

The marketing percentages appear similar.

The underlying position is not.

Project A has 120 unsold or returned units and a measurable net sales rate.

Project B has at least 215 units without executed SPAs when measured against the full project.

The example is hypothetical. It shows why methodology matters more than the percentage.

Market context in 2025–2026

Market commentary on Phnom Penh during 2025 described moderate absorption, cautious demand and the use of flexible payment terms and discounts.

Industry material in 2026 continued to describe substantial supply and more selective buyers focused on price, quality and completion.

That does not mean every project sells slowly.

Strong projects can materially outperform the broader market.

It does mean that apparent scarcity should be examined carefully where:

• release is limited;
• deadlines are repeated;
• bookings are grouped with contracts;
• promotions materially change effective price.

Absorption should show how the market accepts the product, not only how the sales office manages the display.

Conclusion

Project sales velocity cannot be understood from the statement “80% sold”.

The buyer needs to know:

• what counts as sold;
• which inventory is used as the denominator;
• whether cancellations are deducted;
• how much money has been collected;
• whether sales remain stable;
• which units remain;
• how much inventory sits with partners or related parties;
• what the effective price has been;
• how much developer stock will remain after handover.

A good absorption rate is not the largest percentage.

It is stable net demand at a price that supports both project completion and the future economics of private owners.

Sources

1. CBRE Cambodia Q1 2025 market commentary as reported by Cambodia Investment Review.
2. Realestate.com.kh — Cambodia Condo Investment Guide 2026.
3. DFDL — legal commentary on Prakas No. 047 and Cambodian real-estate-development licensing.
4. RICS — Comparable Evidence in Real Estate Valuation.
5. National Bank of Cambodia — Financial Stability Review 2025.

Frequently asked

What is absorption rate in property?

It measures how quickly available supply is taken up over a defined period. For a development, the useful figure is normally net sales after cancellations rather than new bookings alone.

Can a buyer rely on a claim that 80% of the apartments have been sold?

Only after establishing what counts as sold, how many SPAs have been signed, how much money has been received and whether bookings, related parties or unreleased units are excluded.

Why does unsold inventory matter after purchase?

The developer continues competing with private owners through price, instalments, furniture and promotions while a significant stock remains.

What sales rate is considered good?

There is no universal benchmark. It depends on project size, construction stage, price, market conditions and timetable. Stability of net sales and compatibility with the project’s financing plan matter more than one percentage.