AMRO forecasts 4.2% growth for Cambodia in 2026

Higher energy costs are reshaping the 2026 outlook

AMRO estimates that Cambodia’s economy expanded by 5.3% in 2025 and expects growth to moderate to 4.2% this year. The organisation points to the energy shock and continued disruption to cross-border activity, with effects on trade, tourism and labour mobility.

Manufacturing is expected to remain comparatively resilient, while agriculture and services face a tougher environment. Higher oil and fertiliser prices can feed into transport and production costs, while households have less room to spend when essential expenses rise.

For a business owner, the headline growth rate is therefore only part of the story. A slower economy combined with higher input costs can affect sectors very differently, especially companies exposed to domestic consumption, logistics or imported energy.

For practical context, see Cambodia economy and finance. This development also connects with Cambodia warns against unauthorized official marks on labels.

Inflation is projected to average 4.5%

AMRO expects headline consumer inflation to rise to around 4.5% in 2026, largely because Cambodian fuel prices respond closely to global oil prices. The report also warns that energy costs can pass through into food prices and broader underlying inflation relatively quickly.

That does not mean every household should expect its own expenses to rise by exactly 4.5%. Rent, transport, imported goods, groceries and services follow different price dynamics, so the figure is better used as a budgeting benchmark than as a personal cost-of-living calculation.

Property and banking risks remain part of the backdrop

AMRO’s accompanying analysis also points to a prolonged property-market correction and pockets of stress in the banking system, including rising non-performing loans. Those issues matter because weaker property conditions can weigh on bank asset quality, while cautious lending can make financing harder to obtain even when the wider economy is still growing.

The report is not a forecast for apartment prices, rents or investment returns. A property decision still needs local transaction evidence, achievable rents, operating costs and financing terms. The AMRO outlook is more useful as a stress-test input: would the numbers still make sense if economic growth stays moderate and inflation remains elevated?