ADB lowers Cambodia’s 2026 growth outlook to 3.9%

Weaker tourism prompted part of the downgrade

ADB’s September 2026 outlook trims Cambodia’s growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points from the July estimate. The bank still expects growth to strengthen to 4.7% in 2027.

Tourism and related services are among the main weak spots behind the revision. Reporting on the September outlook says international visitor arrivals fell 47.9% year on year to 1.8 million in the first half of 2026. Manufacturing has been more resilient: non-garment manufactured exports rose 38.4% in the first half, while garment exports increased 6.3% to $8 billion.

That split matters for anyone running a business or owning an asset tied to visitor demand. A country can remain in positive GDP growth while hotels, short-stay rentals and tourism-dependent services experience much weaker conditions than the headline number suggests.

For practical context, see Cambodia economy and finance. This development also connects with AMRO sees Cambodia growth at 4.2% in 2026.

Inflation is now forecast at 4.7% for 2026

ADB also raised its 2026 inflation forecast for Cambodia to 4.7%, before an expected moderation to 2.8% in 2027. Higher global oil prices and import costs are among the pressures cited in the outlook.

For households, the relevant effect is pressure on everyday spending, not the national average alone. Businesses may also face higher transport, energy and imported-input costs. The forecast is not a prediction for any one bill or product, so actual local prices remain the better basis for budgeting.

Property performance still depends on local demand

The September coverage describes construction and real estate activity as subdued. That does not establish a single direction for property prices across Phnom Penh, Siem Reap or the rest of Cambodia.

For a buyer or investor, the macro forecast is background, not a substitute for property-level numbers. Short-stay rental performance still depends on occupancy, seasonality, operating costs and achievable rents. A 3.9% GDP growth forecast cannot by itself establish future capital gains or rental returns.