NovPopulation, urbanisation and housing demand
What demography really says about housing: population, age, migration, households and Phnom Penh’s unusually high rental share relative to the country.
Period: 2026-Q2 · checked 22.07.2026
Indicators and their vintage
Each figure keeps two dates: the period it measures and the date it was published. A 2025 result released in mid-2026 was not available at the end of 2025, and a forecast is never shown as an observed outcome.
A census and a projection are not the same thing
The latest full census counted 15.55 million people in March 2019. For demographic scenarios, NIS adjusted the baseline to 16.08 million in July 2019 and produced annual projections [2]. The 17.28 million figure for 2024 on the NIS homepage is therefore a modelled estimate, not a new full count [1].
Projections are necessary between censuses but depend on fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. In the NIS document, the 2019 total fertility rate of 2.5 children per woman is a census-based estimate, while 2.16 for 2025 is a projected path [2]. They should not be presented as equally observed facts.
The distinction matters for property: a small error in national population says little about a specific district, while an error in migration or household size can materially affect local housing estimates.
Population growth is not new-condominium demand
A person becomes a potential buyer or tenant only through the combination of location, income, household structure, preference and access to finance. The national population includes children, rural residents, house owners and people for whom an urban condominium does not fit price or lifestyle.
Households are a more useful next step. CSES estimated almost 3.99 million households in 2023, including 570,000 in Phnom Penh [3]. A household may contain several generations in one dwelling, so population growth and required housing units do not move one-for-one.
Tenure—ownership, rent or rent-free occupation—is the next filter. It shows where a rental market is genuinely material.
Phnom Penh differs from the rest of the country
In 2023, 91.8% of Cambodian households owned their dwelling and only 4.9% rented. Phnom Penh was different: 70.0% owners and 25.9% renters [3]. This is one of the most useful open indicators for understanding the capital’s housing demand.
“Rented dwelling” in the survey includes rooms, houses, apartments and other units. It is not the share of residents renting modern condominiums. Treating 25.9% as the ready size of the condo-rental market would be wrong.
The contrast with rural areas, where only 0.4% rented, reflects migration, education, employment and a more mobile capital-city lifestyle [3]. It confirms a substantial rental market, not a particular price segment.
Income defines affordability
CSES estimated median disposable income per person in Phnom Penh at KHR 772,000 per month in 2023 [3]. This is a population median, not the salary of a foreign specialist or total household income. It nevertheless shows why much of the city cannot be the audience for expensive new supply.
Rent affordability requires household size, earners, essential spending and transport. Purchase affordability adds savings, credit, deposit and the legally available ownership form. Comparing an apartment price only with GDP per capita captures none of these factors.
A premium segment can be served by a smaller group far above the median. The city median does not prove demand is absent, but it requires the target audience to be defined honestly and its depth tested.
Dwelling size and quality
Average dwelling floor area in Phnom Penh was 62.3 square metres in 2023, compared with 54.6 nationally; floor area per person was 16.6 square metres [3]. The average covers many dwelling types and is not a recommended unit size.
The measure helps test marketing claims. A compact studio can fit a mobile single tenant but not an average family; a large apartment may face a narrow audience because of the total budget. Layout, room count and usable sleeping capacity matter more than area alone.
CSES also reports about two rooms per household and 2.5 people per room in Phnom Penh [3]. These figures describe occupied housing overall, not the standard of new condominiums, but provide density context.
Migration matters more than national growth for a city
Urbanisation occurs through moves for work, education, family formation and changing built-up boundaries. A national population projection does not show which Phnom Penh district receives people or whether they stay long term.
The 2025 return of a large number of workers from Thailand abruptly changed the labour market and remittances. The World Bank estimated that about 620,000 returnees had been placed in work while roughly 230,000 remained unemployed at the time of the report [4]. It shows how a migration shock can increase the population present without immediately creating solvent urban demand.
District analysis needs jobs, schools, transport, actual occupancy and household registration. Regular quarterly series at that resolution are not openly available.
The demographic window is not permanent
The World Bank projects that Cambodia’s working-age share will peak around 2043 [4]. By 2050 the labour force may be roughly 3.7 million larger than in 2024, while the worker-to-elderly support ratio is projected to fall from 10.4 to 5.7 [4]. This is a long-term scenario, not guaranteed income growth.
A demographic dividend requires jobs, education, health and productivity. A large young cohort without good employment does not automatically create demand for expensive housing.
For property, the horizon is more useful for infrastructure and housing typology than short-term price forecasts: household size, accessibility, medical services and transport needs will evolve.
How to test an urbanisation claim for a project
The claim that “the city is growing” needs a radius and period. Growth on one urban edge may not help an apartment in another direction if jobs, roads and services are disconnected.
Request actual occupied-unit counts in the building and nearby projects, household profiles, schools and employers within a realistic travel time. Lit windows and a used car park can reveal more about local demand than a national projection.
Competition must be checked separately: comparable units completed, under construction and retained by developers. Demography forms a potential base; supply determines how it is divided among assets.
Household formation matters more than a single population total
Housing demand is created by households, not only by people. Two million residents may live in 400,000 large households or 800,000 smaller ones, producing a different need for separate units. Population growth without household size and shared-living patterns does not yield an apartment count.
Households split through marriage, work migration, study, rising income or a desire to live nearer school. They can combine again when income falls, migrants return or families share costs. These decisions move faster than a census and affect studios, family apartments and affordable peripheral houses differently.
For Phnom Penh, actual renting, household composition, income and district-level migration are more useful than repeating the national age profile. A population projection provides an upper-level context; asset demand is confirmed by independent payers and suitable nearby supply.
This also limits marketing arithmetic. Population growth cannot be multiplied by an average apartment price and called market size. Analysts must first estimate who forms a new household, rents, can pay and chooses the relevant segment.
What this means for a property buyer
A buyer should count the chain “households → renters or buyers → suitable budget → district → unit type”, rather than population alone. Every missing step becomes an assumption.
Phnom Penh does stand out for its renter share—25.9% of households in 2023 [3]. But that is the entire rental market, not condominiums alone; a project still needs evidence of its audience and competition.
Long-term demography supports the need for housing and infrastructure, while near-term asset liquidity depends on employment, income, transport, management quality and current supply.
What we do not know
Between censuses, national population is projected. Regular open data on intra-urban migration, new-household formation and district populations are limited.
CSES reports tenure and income for broad geographic domains but does not isolate modern condominiums, price tiers or tenant nationality [3].
Demographic paths after 2024 depend on fertility, migration and employment assumptions. They are not used here as forecasts of prices or transaction counts.
The 570,000 Phnom Penh household estimate comes from the 2023 survey and is not a current administrative counter.
Frequently asked questions
Is 17.28 million a new census result?
No. NIS labels the 2024 figure as a projection. The latest full census was in 2019 [1][2].
Do 25.9% of Phnom Penh households rent condominiums?
Unknown. The survey counts all rented dwelling types. It establishes the importance of renting, not the size of the condominium segment [3].
Can housing demand be estimated from population growth?
Only after assumptions about household size, migration, tenure, income and housing type. Population growth alone does not yield a unit count.
Why is median income often more useful than average income?
The median shows the middle of the distribution and is less distorted by a small number of high incomes. A premium segment still requires separate analysis of higher-income groups.
What is a demographic dividend?
It is the potential benefit of a large working-age share. It requires employment, skills, health and productivity; age structure alone does not create income.
Which local data matter most?
Building occupancy, tenant types, travel time to jobs and schools, competing supply and actual payment history. These connect demography to a specific asset.
Where this leads next
Apply this to a specific property
Tell us the project and the goal — we will say which of these numbers actually bears on that decision and what still has to be confirmed in the building’s own documents.
WhatsApp Contact formInformational material based on public, dated sources. It is not a public offer and not individual investment, tax or legal advice, and no forecast here is a promise of price or yield. Figures carry the period and the release date of their source and may be revised by the issuing body. A decision on a specific property requires document, price and ownership-cost checks with an independent Cambodian lawyer.