NovCambodia economy in Q1 2026: final review
An independent reconstruction of January–March from the National Bank’s monthly bulletin, official tourism statistics and dated external assessments. Cambodia does not publish a timely observed quarterly GDP figure, so the review does not manufacture one growth number. It tracks channels that affect tenants, owners and developers differently.
Indicators and their vintage
Each figure keeps two dates: the period it measures and the date it was published. A 2025 result released in mid-2026 was not available at the end of 2025, and a forecast is never shown as an observed outcome.
| Indicator | Value | Period | Released | Note |
|---|
How the review was assembled and why it has no single GDP number
Cambodia does not publish a timely quarterly GDP release that supports an observed January–March growth rate. This review is therefore built from the bottom up: money, rates and exchange data come from the NBC’s March bulletin, tourism from the Ministry of Tourism, and trade momentum plus the annual forecast from the World Bank’s June update [1][2][3].
The dashboard is not a substitute GDP calculation. Exports can rise while tourism falls; credit can expand while M2 declines during a month; and a stable exchange rate can coexist with a price shock. Those divergences matter for property because a long-term Phnom Penh rental, a tourism-led asset and a bank-funded development depend on different parts of the economy.
A source’s cover date is not necessarily its data period. NBC’s bulletin titled First Quarter 2026 was released on 18 March, but its highlights and tables end at 2025-Q4 [4]. It cannot be used as an observed Q1 balance-of-payments release. The final data model stores release vintage and latest observation separately.
Tourism: the national fall was mainly a land-route shock
Cambodia recorded 1,014,147 international arrivals during the quarter, down 44.8% year on year [2]. The national total hides two different paths: air arrivals fell 15.9%, while land and waterways fell 66.6%. The same national decline should not be applied to every asset.
The capital airport handled 429,781 arrivals, Siem Reap Angkor 207,599 and Sihanoukville 26,361 [2]. Sihanoukville’s 104% increase looks large, but its absolute base is much smaller. A percentage increase from a low base does not prove apartment occupancy, and an airport count does not show length of stay or accommodation type.
For Phnom Penh, the relatively more resilient air channel matters, although it still declined. Siem Reap requires separate evidence on nights and hotel competition. Border locations and markets exposed to Thai traffic faced a deeper shock: arrivals from Thailand fell 94.8% [2].
Prices: March changed budgets faster than annual forecasts
In March, headline CPI rose 2.37% from February and 5.58% from March 2025 [1]. The annual rate more than doubled from February’s 2.59%. Transport, food, restaurants, clothing and the housing-water-electricity-gas-fuels group were the main contributors.
For an owner, this does not mean rent can automatically rise by 5.58%. Travel by technicians, materials, delivery, cleaning and appliance replacement may reprice quickly while an existing lease remains fixed until renewal. Net cash flow can narrow even when gross rent is unchanged.
Tenant impact depends on the spending basket. A household with high transport and food costs experiences the shock differently from a corporate tenant whose housing is paid by an employer. Inflation is context for affordability, not a ready-made rent index.
Money and credit: lower M2 did not cancel credit growth
In March, broad money M2 stood at KHR 252,237.5 billion and fell 0.9% from February, while private-sector credit rose 0.8% during the month [1]. This is not a contradiction: money and credit stocks have different components and respond to deposits, foreign assets and other balance-sheet items.
The March issue revised January and February monetary tables [1]. An early quarterly note written before May could therefore rely on a superseded series. The final Q1 page uses the March issue as the quarter’s last consolidated vintage instead of stitching together unrevised monthly releases.
For property, credit allocation, borrower quality and collateral matter more than the aggregate monthly percentage. System growth of 0.8% does not reveal whether a developer received a new facility, whether debt was restructured or what priority a bank holds over project land.
A system lending rate is not a mortgage quote
Average rates on new term loans in March were 9.39% in US dollars and 10.43% in riel [1]. These are weighted averages across new amounts, borrower types and purposes. They indicate the direction of funding costs but do not replace a bank offer.
A foreign buyer may face different credit access, income tests, collateral rules, maturity and down-payment requirements. Developers, construction companies and end-buyers also borrow on different terms. The NBC average should not be inserted directly into an apartment calculator.
The practical test is the actual term sheet: currency, fixed or floating rate, fees, insurance, amortisation, penalties and the bank’s right to reprice. The macro rate provides negotiation context, not a substitute for the document.
The exchange rate was stable, but the contractual rate still matters
The market USD buying rate was around KHR 4,000 in March and the riel appreciated 0.22% from February [1]. This is a calm backdrop for a dollar buyer, but a property is not paid only through its headline contract price: government charges, utilities and small expenses may be in riel.
Risk appears when the SPA, instalment schedule or management invoice does not define the rate source and conversion date. A small rate difference multiplies across a large payment, while the buy-sell spread is not visible in an official average.
National exchange-rate stability therefore does not remove the need to review the currency clause. The obligation currency, payment channel, recognition date and conversion reference should all be explicit.
Trade supported employment, but imports grew faster
The World Bank estimated that Q1 exports excluding gold grew 17.7% year on year and imports 23.3% [3]. The strong goods channel supported manufacturing and logistics, while faster imports reflected inputs, machinery and expensive energy.
Export growth does not automatically become demand for high-priced condominiums. Between a factory order and an apartment lease are job numbers, wages, household type, transport access and competing housing. Industrial zones often generate demand for affordable rooms and transport rather than central investment stock.
For a Phnom Penh project, trade can support corporate, logistics and management functions, but demand evidence must remain local: the building’s tenants, nearby employers, budgets and lease duration.
What changed from the end of 2025
The main change was not a single economic turn but a wider divergence. Merchandise exports remained strong, tourism weakened, March inflation accelerated sharply, and banking aggregates moved without evidence of a broad credit boom.
Property therefore operated under several regimes at once. A tourism-led asset required a more conservative occupancy case; a long-term city apartment required tenant-income evidence; a construction-stage project required funding and collateral review; and an owner of a completed unit needed an updated operating budget.
The quarter cannot be reduced to growth or decline. The people-first conclusion is to identify the channel through which a specific asset receives demand and costs, then select the relevant data series.
What would justify a future Q1 revision
The page is final for the published and verified high-frequency series, but it does not claim that all national accounts are closed. A revision is justified only if an official series genuinely covering January–March changes the interpretation: quarterly national accounts, revised monthly data, a new property-price period or verifiable construction statistics.
A new source issue should not automatically overwrite the old report. Editors must first check its observation period, revisions and reproducibility. Vintage history remains in notes and the source registry.
The page therefore preserves what was knowable at the cutoff date rather than becoming a silently changing narrative. That is more useful to the reader than false finality.
What this means for a property buyer
A buyer does not need a generic verdict that the economy is good or bad. First identify the asset’s dependency: tourist nights, wage demand, corporate tenants, project bank funding or the buyer’s own living budget. Those channels diverged in Q1, making a single national number particularly risky.
For a completed unit, update operating expenses with observed March prices but do not mechanically index rent. For a construction-stage property, verify bank security and funding for the next phase. For a tourism model, separate air and land traffic and use city-specific evidence.
A rate near KHR 4,000 reduced short-term currency volatility but did not replace the contract’s conversion clause. Average lending rates described system funding costs but were not an available mortgage. Every macro number should be carried through to a document or operating metric of the asset.
What we do not know
There is no timely official observed quarterly GDP series, so Q1 growth cannot be stated in the same sense as an annual national-account outcome.
Public series do not show quarterly apartment transactions, achieved discounts, building-level vacancy or the financing of each individual development.
Tourist arrivals do not reveal private-apartment nights. Regional visits are not unique people, and airport growth is not rent growth.
The balance-of-payments bulletin released in March under a Q1 2026 title actually ends at Q4 2025 [4]. A full January–March external account is not included without a verified series.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the report final without quarterly GDP?
It is final for the verified high-frequency series available by 22 July 2026. It does not invent an unknown GDP result and states which future releases could trigger a revision.
Does a 44.8% tourism fall mean rent fell 44.8%?
No. It is a change in international border arrivals. Rental analysis needs the city, nights, accommodation type, stay length and the tourism share of the asset’s actual tenant base.
Why did credit rise while M2 fell?
They are different balance-sheet measures. M2 reflects currency and several deposit types, while credit reflects claims on the private sector. Their monthly changes can diverge.
Can 9.39% be used in a mortgage calculator?
Only as an external scenario, not a promised rate. A decision model needs the actual term sheet, fees, maturity, currency, security and repayment schedule.
What did strong exports mean for a Phnom Penh apartment?
It supported parts of employment and corporate activity, but the link to an apartment depends on employers, pay, district and housing format. National exports do not replace a building-level tenant audit.
How should Q1 be used with the evergreen topics?
The report explains what changed during the period. Definitions and long series belong on the linked inflation, tourism, banking, currency, export and risk pages.
Where this leads next
Sources
The sources cited on this page, numbered in order. Each one is named with its issuing body and release date, because a figure without a vintage cannot be checked for staleness. We do not publish outbound links — the document name and the institution are enough to find and verify it yourself.
- [1] Economic and Monetary Statistics Bulletin, Series No. 385, March 2026 — National Bank of Cambodia — 05.2026
- [2] Tourism Statistics Report in the First Quarter 2026 — Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia — 05.2026
- [3] Cambodia Economic Update, June 2026: Navigating Shocks — World Bank — 08.06.2026
- [4] Balance of Payments Bulletin No. 90 — National Bank of Cambodia — 18.03.2026
Apply this to a specific property
Tell us the project and the goal — we will say which of these numbers actually bears on that decision and what still has to be confirmed in the building’s own documents.
WhatsApp Contact formInformational material based on public, dated sources. It is not a public offer and not individual investment, tax or legal advice, and no forecast here is a promise of price or yield. Figures carry the period and the release date of their source and may be revised by the issuing body. A decision on a specific property requires document, price and ownership-cost checks with an independent Cambodian lawyer.