Cambodia’s growth forecast falls to 3.9% as manufacturing outpaces services

Manufacturing exports provide support while services struggle

The sector figures reported by AKP help explain why a growing economy can still disappoint. In January–August 2026, garment exports rose 6.7% from the same period a year earlier, while non-garment manufacturing exports increased 37.3%. These are export growth rates, not measures of how much the whole economy expanded.

According to AKP’s account of the briefing, AMRO’s chief economist attributed the downgrade mainly to the slow recovery in services, particularly tourism and real estate. Industrial exporters are providing support without resolving the weakness in those sectors.

AMRO’s outlook for 2027 envisages growth of 4.9%, according to Vietstock’s account of the October update. That remains a projection of a stronger year ahead, not evidence that every part of the economy is already recovering.

For practical context, see Cambodia market and country comparisons. This development also connects with Cambodia tyre exports hit $1.72bn in first nine months of 2026.

Property income needs evidence beyond the GDP forecast

For a housing buyer, the gap between manufacturing and services is more informative than the headline growth rate alone. Overseas demand for factory output does not establish demand for a particular apartment. The prospective tenants, the rent they will actually pay and the length of their stay still need separate evidence.

Nor does a lower national forecast tell a buyer how large a discount to seek. Signed leases on comparable homes, vacancy periods and ownership costs provide a basis for assessing rental income; advertised asking rents show only what landlords hope to obtain. A sales argument resting entirely on Cambodia’s economic growth leaves those questions unanswered.