IMF completes Cambodia review with 3% growth forecast and property-sector risks

The final review confirms the July growth estimate

The IMF's July mission had already projected that Cambodia's growth would slow to 3% in 2026. The completed Article IV consultation keeps that forecast unchanged and expects growth to recover to 4% in 2027.

That would still represent a sharp slowdown from the IMF's estimate of 5.3% growth in 2025, following 6.0% in 2024. The Fund points to higher energy costs, weaker tourism and remittances, slower garment exports, subdued domestic demand and tighter financial conditions as the main near-term drags.

Inflation is projected to average 5.6% in 2026 before easing to 3.1% in 2027. These are IMF projections and should not be read as outcomes already locked in.

For practical context, see Cambodia law and taxes. This development also connects with IMF mission sees Cambodia growth slowing to 3% in 2026.

Property weakness is now part of the financial-sector story

The report treats Cambodia's prolonged real-estate correction as more than a property-market issue. It is also feeding into asset-quality pressure at banks at a time when credit and deposit growth have weakened.

The IMF calls for timely recognition of losses, adequate provisioning and credible capital plans. It also wants stronger monitoring of concentrated exposures to property, developers, large borrowers and related parties.

At the same time, the Fund says systemic risks remain contained. That matters because the report is a warning about vulnerabilities and balance-sheet repair, not a finding that Cambodia's banking system is in a systemic crisis.

A 2027 rebound would not automatically lift every property project

For investors and buyers, the headline GDP forecast has limited value on its own. A 4% growth projection for 2027 does not establish when residential demand will recover, how quickly developers will repair balance sheets or whether prices in a particular project will rise.

The more useful signal is that Cambodia is entering 2027 with a softer domestic economy, a property correction that has not fully cleared and lenders under greater pressure to recognise risk properly. Projects with credible financing and genuine end-user or rental demand may behave very differently from developments that depend on a broad market rebound.