ADB raises Thailand’s 2026 growth forecast to 2%

Technology exports changed the 2026 picture

Thailand’s economy expanded by 2.4% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to figures cited with the ADB update. Merchandise exports rose 14.8% over the same period and private investment increased 11.6%. Technology and electronics shipments were an important part of that strength, benefiting from global investment tied to the expansion of AI-related infrastructure.

That first-half performance helps explain why ADB moved its full-year estimate up by 0.2 percentage points. It suggests that export and investment activity has been more resilient than expected, but it does not imply that household demand, small businesses or every region of Thailand are experiencing the same momentum.

For practical context, see Thailand economy and finance. This development also connects with World Bank Raises Thailand’s 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 2%.

The 2027 outlook is slightly softer

ADB now expects growth of 1.9% in 2027, down from the 2.0% projection published in July. The wider September outlook highlights risks from energy costs, trade uncertainty and a strong El Niño, while Thailand may also receive less support once current stimulus effects fade and exceptional technology-export momentum normalises.

The bank also lowered Thailand’s 2026 inflation forecast from 2.9% to 2.5%, with inflation projected at 1.3% in 2027. A lower headline forecast can ease the overall cost backdrop, but households and businesses may still face very different price movements in energy, transport, food and other categories exposed to global or weather-related shocks.

A 2% GDP forecast is not a property-market call

For property buyers and owners, a national GDP forecast is useful context rather than a direct pricing signal. Local supply, completed transactions, achieved rents, financing conditions, tourism patterns and the pipeline of new projects matter much more when assessing an individual district or development.

The same distinction matters for businesses. Export-oriented companies and sectors linked to electronics or investment may benefit earlier than firms relying mainly on domestic consumer spending. The September revision therefore supports a more resilient 2026 macro picture, but it should not be read as evidence that demand will rise automatically across every sector.