Bali's 2026–27 rainy season is expected to arrive later than usual

In brief: Indonesia's meteorological agency BMKG warned on September 28 that Bali faces a delayed start to the 2026–27 rainy season; only three of the island's 20 seasonal climate zones are forecast to enter the wet season in late November; the other 17 are expected to begin in December.

The timing matters for residents and people arranging extended stays, but it does not provide a day-by-day rain calendar. A dry spell can continue well into the usual transition period, while isolated showers may occur before the official seasonal threshold has been reached.

December is the expected starting point for 85% of Bali's climate zones

BMKG's Bali climate station identified a late-November onset for three zones, covering around 15% of the island's seasonal zones. The forecast named areas including Banjar, Sukasada, Baturiti, Pupuan, Petang and Payangan. The remaining 17 zones, or 85%, were assigned a December onset. All 20 were forecast to start later than their usual climatic timing.

The rainy season may also be compressed. In eastern Bali and Nusa Penida, BMKG projected a duration of roughly 10–12 ten-day periods, compared with 16–18 in central Bali. These figures describe the length of a seasonal phase, not the number of days on which rain will fall. The expected peak for much of Bali is February 2027.

BMKG has linked the extended dry conditions to a very strong El Niño. Its September outlook also raised the possibility of heavier bursts of rain during a shorter wet season. This is a seasonal risk assessment, not a warning that a specific property or district will flood on a particular date.

A 123-day dry spell shows how uneven the conditions are

A monitoring post in Sumberklampok village, Gerokgak district, Buleleng, recorded 123 consecutive days without rain as of September 28, according to figures reported by ANTARA the following day. It was the longest dry spell reported among the Bali monitoring locations cited, not an island-wide count.

Some places had received light rain earlier in September, yet subsequent dry weather meant the seasonal onset criteria had not been met. The distinction helps explain why a rainy afternoon is not evidence that the wider wet season has begun.

BMKG's October 13 atmospheric analysis continued to identify drought-warning areas within Bali for the second ten-day period of October. At the same time, a seasonal dry outlook does not rule out locally heavy showers. The location and timing of any particular event require more immediate forecasts and warnings.

For someone selecting a longer-term rental, the delayed onset makes it worthwhile to consider both water availability during continued dry weather and how the property handles heavy downpours later. Drainage, access roads and the condition of the building are local questions; the island-wide forecast cannot answer them. Residents should use updated BMKG warnings when making time-sensitive travel decisions, especially for journeys involving exposed roads or sea crossings.

• ANTARA Bali, “Rekor hari tanpa hujan di Bali selama 123 hari, terjadi di Sumberklampok-Buleleng” — September 29, 2026.
• BMKG, “BMKG: El Niño Sangat Kuat sedang Terjadi, Musim Hujan 2026/2027 Diprediksi Datang Lebih Lambat” — September 22, 2026.
• BMKG, “Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Dasarian I Oktober 2026” — October 13, 2026.