Chiang Mai is carrying more than four years of housing inventory at the current sales pace

Unsold inventory reached 11,353 units

Thailand's Real Estate Information Center (REIC), part of the Government Housing Bank, released its first-half 2026 review of five northern provinces on September 25. In Chiang Mai, total housing supply stood at 12,715 units, while remaining supply reached 11,353 units, 12% higher than a year earlier.

The average monthly absorption rate was 1.8%. Holding that pace constant produces an estimated clearance period of about 50 months, or just over four years. The figure is a market ratio based on current sales velocity, not a forecast that every remaining unit will be sold by a particular date.

Across the five northern provinces, new supply fell by around 9% as developers became more cautious. REIC pointed to high household debt and tight mortgage lending as continuing restraints on demand.

For practical context, see How to buy property in Thailand. This development also connects with Northeast Thailand housing launches jump 62.3% in H1 2026.

Condominiums and housing estates are moving at different speeds

The province-wide average masks a substantial gap between property types. REIC estimated about 39 months of remaining condominium inventory, compared with roughly 55 months for housing-estate stock.

Condominium sales rose 49.4% year on year in the first half, while housing-estate sales increased by about 9%. That divergence matters because a buyer looking at a city condominium is not facing the same supply conditions as someone considering a low-rise project on the suburban market.

Project-level liquidity matters more than the city average

A large stock overhang does not by itself prove that prices will fall or that a particular development should be discounted. It does, however, make broad assumptions about rapid market-wide appreciation harder to justify from the headline recovery figures alone.

For buyers, the more useful questions are how many units remain in the specific project, how quickly comparable units are selling, whether additional phases are coming to market, and how much competing supply exists nearby. Those details are especially relevant when the plan depends on resale within a relatively short period rather than long-term personal use.