Knight Frank Estimates Greater Bangkok Has About 350,000 Unsold Condo Units

The five-to-six-year figure is a scenario, not a sell-out date

Knight Frank's Q1 assessment described a market carrying a large inventory overhang. About 6,174 condominium units were launched during the quarter across Bangkok and surrounding provinces, with no new launches in the central business district. City-fringe locations accounted for roughly 58% of new supply and suburban locations for the other 42%, while more than 68% of newly launched units were priced below THB 80,000 per square metre.

Against that backdrop, Knight Frank estimated unsold inventory at approximately 350,000 units. It then compared that stock with average annual condominium ownership transfers of around 60,000 units to produce the five-to-six-year absorption estimate.

The assumption matters. Knight Frank's calculation explicitly depends on no substantial new supply being added during the period. Actual absorption can change with new launches, mortgage availability, developer incentives, buyer confidence and the fit between remaining stock and demand in specific locations. The figure is therefore more useful as an indicator of the scale of the overhang than as a timetable for the market to clear.

**Later Q2 data improved, but Knight Frank's two Q1 rates do not match**

The June Q1 report put the sales or reservation rate for newly launched projects at 24.3%, down from 43.8% in the previous quarter. The same 24.3% figure appeared in Knight Frank's June market commentary about developers shifting toward more affordable segments.

An August Q2 update used a different series. Knight Frank said the launch-period sales rate rose to 51.7% in Q2 from 45.3% in Q1. For the first half of 2026, it reported 8,501 newly launched units and 3,994 reservations recorded within the respective launch quarters, equivalent to a 47.0% launch-period sales rate.

That leaves two published Q1 figures from the same firm: 24.3% and 45.3%. The accessible public material does not explain the reconciliation, so treating 24.3% and 51.7% as directly comparable points in one unchanged series would overstate the precision of the trend. What the later update does make clear is that developers became more selective about project size, location and pricing rather than relying on a broad rebound in purchasing power.

For practical context, see How to buy property in Thailand. This development also connects with Bangkok condo launch sales rate rises to 51.7%.

More inventory can strengthen a buyer's hand without forcing prices down everywhere

For a buyer, the practical message is not that every Bangkok condominium should be discounted. A large stock of unsold units increases the number of alternatives and can improve negotiating room, particularly where several projects compete for the same buyers with similar layouts and price points.

The city is not one uniform market, however. A well-located project with limited remaining stock can behave very differently from a peripheral development facing hundreds of comparable units. Project-level inventory, actual transfer activity, construction status, payment terms and nearby competing supply are more useful for a purchase decision than the metropolitan inventory figure alone.

Investors should also avoid turning an inventory overhang into an automatic forecast of falling prices. It can increase resale risk and extend the time needed to exit, but the outcome for a particular unit still depends on location, product quality, competing supply and genuine end-user or rental demand.