Bali may need 5 GW of renewables beyond PLN's existing plan, IESR says

In brief: At Bali Climate Week on 13 October 2026, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) outlined a scenario requiring up to 5 gigawatts of additional renewable generation by 2034, on top of capacity already envisaged in PLN's electricity supply plan. The estimate describes what would be needed to advance Bali's 2045 net-zero ambition; it does not announce a funded construction programme.

The island's electricity transition is increasingly a question of where new projects can be built and how they would connect to the grid. IESR's assessment builds on an electricity-sector roadmap released in July 2025, which explored the possibility of a fully renewable power system by 2045. The latest statement focuses on nearer-term capacity, investment requirements and obstacles to delivery.

Building enough capacity goes beyond finding sunny sites

IESR puts Bali's technical renewable energy potential at about 22.03 GW. That figure includes resources that cannot necessarily be developed under current land-use, permitting and grid conditions. The organisation says it has already worked with Bali's provincial government on a preliminary assessment of locations for large ground-mounted solar projects, including local planning constraints and cultural considerations.

Project preparation remains the bottleneck. Developers would need suitable land, grid access, viable financing and clear electricity purchase arrangements. IESR also identifies rooftop solar and energy storage as important parts of the transition. It continues to advocate a 100% renewable electricity system for Nusa Penida by 2030, but that remains a future objective.

What the 5 GW estimate includes — and what it doesn't

The proposed additional capacity sits above the targets in state utility PLN's 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan. Under IESR's scenario, renewables could account for as much as 37% of electricity generation on Bali by 2034. Its investment estimate for 2025–2034 is approximately $6.7 billion.

Neither figure should be confused with a government spending commitment. The projected generation share depends on the proposed investments taking place, and the press statement does not set out an approved schedule for commissioning the full 5 GW.

For context, IESR cites PLN figures from July 2026 showing around 1,477 MW of generation capacity supporting Bali's power system. The island also receives roughly 270–340 MW of electricity from Java through subsea cables. Developing local renewables could change that dependence over time, provided transmission and storage expand alongside generation.

Residents have no new electricity tariff from this announcement

For a household considering rooftop panels, or a hotel assessing its future energy costs, the announcement offers a view of the province's direction rather than a new set of customer rules. It does not introduce a household tariff, establish rooftop connection terms or guarantee a particular saving on electricity bills.

The milestones to watch are specific projects securing sites, approvals, financing and workable grid connections. Until those steps are clear, future electricity costs and reliability cannot be inferred from the headline capacity target.

• IESR, “Bali Moves to Realize 100% Renewable Energy and Zero Emissions 2045” — 15 July 2025.